Efendiev: “More EU and NATO Involvement in the Caspian Region Is a Win-Win Scenario”
Jana Kovačovská - 20. Duben 2010, rubrika Rozhovory
Témata: Ázerbajdžán, energetická bezpečnost, zahraniční politika
Altai Efendiev is the Head of Department of Economic Cooperation and Development at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan. From 2000 to 2004, he was Economic Adviser to the Minister of Foreign Affairs. He also acted as Deputy Secretary General of the Permanent International Secretariat of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). Part of this interview has also been published in the Bulletin of Azerbaijan and Caspian Studies Center, which operates under the International Institute of Political Science of the Masaryk University.
Altai Efendiev holds master’s degree on international economic relations from Kyiv State University. His educational experience also includes post-graduate study at the Institute of Oriental Studies in Baku and Moscow, the Clingendael Institute of International Relations (the Netherlands), MBA at the City University (UK), and JFK School of Governance of Harvard University (USA).
Caspian region's importance is growing increasingly. Do you see any important shifts over the last years in terms of power and geopolitics in the region?
For clarity let us define the geography of the Caspian region as the one that embrace the Central Asian republics, the South Caucasus, and adjacent territories of the Russian Federation and Iran.
Importance of the region emanates from its geography, rich resources and potential role in global affairs. Once in history it was an integral and important part of global economy. As geographical shortcut between East and West, the region significantly contributed to the trade among the nations along the famous Silk Route and to their prosperity.
Being at the heart of Eurasia, geographically the region constitutes a borderline between two major world’s religions – Christianity to the North and Islam to the South. Historically it has also been the battleground for influence and domination, an area of confrontations and divisions.
Nowadays, in new geopolitical context, the importance of the Caspian region emanates also from its proximity to the hottest spots of instability on the planet – Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, conflicts in the Caucasus, developments concerning Iran’s controversial nuclear program, instability in the Northern Caucasus region of the Russian Federation. The region, in particular countries that regained their independence recently, are exposed to high risks should the developments unfold in undesirable ways.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union has certainly started new developments in this area…
Since 90s, access to the rich energy resources of the region turned to be the major factor that defined dynamics of the developments in and around the region. The interaction of global and regional powers plays a significant role here.
Another important feature that significantly impedes development of the region is that the region is land-locked with nearest access to the open seas going the narrow neck of the South Caucasus to the Black Sea. Therefore stable and secure South Caucasus is crucial for the development of the Central Asian states.
So, after decades of isolation, the region now undergoes the process of reshaping and reintegration into world economy under new geopolitical context and all of the factors and players mentioned above attribute to its dynamics.
This, let’s say, emancipation from former isolation, has certainly led to establishment of new bilateral relations and partnerships. Which countries and fields of cooperation are crucial nowadays?
Most significant developments in the regional affairs have been witnessed during the times of deep involvement and strong support of the global powers, in particular, the USA. Most vivid examples are the opening of the Caspian Sea for exploration and development of its hydrocarbon reserves with wide international participation, construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP), or Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline linking Caspian region with international markets through the territory of Turkey. These projects, constituting major elements of the Southern energy corridor, have changed economic and geopolitical landscape of the region and contributed significantly to its development and integration into world economy.
Nowadays, as the degree and level of engagement of global powers, in particular the US and the EU, is weakened, the pace and trends of development in the region have changed and overall development has slowed down.
Towards what is this development heading?
Situation on the ground is evolving towards new balance of interest/power in the region. After the occupation of the parts of Georgia, Russia has strengthened its grip of the region, Turkey is increasing its influence through active involvement in regional affairs, China is getting deeply involved through implementation of large energy and infrastructure projects, Iran is also trying to play more active role in the region. Interplay of these actors will define new dynamics in the Caspian region.
To ensure developments in the region in a stable and predictable way, more active and deeper involvement is required, in particular of the US and the EU. Hopefully, the EU won’t have a chorus of opinions but a single and stronger voice and stance in regional affairs after the Lisbon Treaty is in force, and will increase its influence in shaping its neighborhood.
In this situation, what do you consider the most important foreign policy priorities for Azerbaijan these days? How to address them?
Obviously, the most important foreign policy priority for Azerbaijan is the restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country within internationally recognized borders through just and lasting resolution of the conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.
This conflict caused a lot of hardships for Azerbaijan. Fifth of our territory remains under occupation for over 15 years, about million of refugees and displaced persons scattered across. This is a very hard burden for the country.
Besides, the occupied territories are a gray zone where illegal activities such as arms and drugs smuggling flourish.
What are the impacts of this situation from wider regional and international perspective?
Conflict also seriously impacts the development trends and dynamics in the region towards more division and polarization and gaps between states, with some getting richer and stronger and others weak and impoverished.
This frozen conflict remains a major potential security threat to regional stability with wider international implications, it devours significant share of budget resources for armaments to maintain security.
This unfortunate development is not in the interest of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has the potential and the will to contribute to the sustainable and comprehensive regional development to shape it as a safe, cohesive and prosperous area.
Can Azerbaijan take care of this issue all alone?
We have openly and clearly stated our intentions for the resolution and the development of the region. However, just and lasting resolution of the conflict is possible only through unbiased, impartial and active engagement of wider international community.
As for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, why is it so hard to achieve substantial progress there?
Indeed, it is the first and one of the most serious conflicts in the terrain of the former USSR. The conflict served as a model and triggered centrifugal processes in many parts of the former USSR which eventually brought to its collapse. Being the product of imperialistic “divide and rule” thinking, these conflicts were used to manipulate territories to keep them under effective control.
Knowing the history and origins of the conflict which was conceived far beyond its geography, one can understand and interpret the developments on the ground.
So what are possible scenarios of how this conflict can develop in a foreseeable future?
Unfortunately, over 15 years of negotiations with the involvement of international community in the capacity of the co-chairmen of the Minsk group (France, Russia and the USA), regardless the relevant four Resolutions of the UN Security Council, have brought no progress in the process.
Scenarios will depend on what kind of vision of the future of the South Caucasus and what kind of role for it to play is determined by the global players. As well as on the degree of engagement and commitment of international community to the just and lasting resolution of this and other similar conflicts in the region. This might sound cynical but the fate of the region and its peoples is the subject of bargaining and trade off among global powers.
Let’s shift to some economic issues for a change. You have already mentioned international energy projects in the area – so more precisely, what are the pros and cons of one of the most interesting projects nowadays, the Nabucco project, from the point of view of Azerbaijan?
Personally, I do not see any cons in the Nabucco project as it is. The concept aimed at enhancing European energy security through diversification of sources and routes of supply is quite feasible. Therefore project has been earmarked by EU as a priority. It goes in line with the interests of Azerbaijan since it adds to the diversification, it ensures access to new stable and growing markets, and it endorses important regional role of Azerbaijan as crucial link between Europe and Central Asia.
Therefore Azerbaijan is a participant, keen and willing to play active role in the project along with other parties and partners. However we are disappointed with the pace of the development of project.
On a related topic, why is it better for Azerbaijan to sign Nabucco contract instead of selling its gas reserves to Russia for market price?
It is difficult to say what is better. Hypothetically, it is preferable to have a long-term contract with politically stable and developed markets/consumers. However, situation and judgments may vary depending on the terms and conditions at any moment of time.
The development of offshore gas fields in Azerbaijan is outpacing the progress with Nabucco project and this is causing serious concerns for us. Therefore, now we are exploring all possible options available to keep development momentum and find alternative ways for export, among which is supplies to Russia, Iran, Bulgaria, etc.
From a wider economic perspective, what are the most serious economic challenges Azerbaijan and the entire region are dealing with at the moment and how do you want to address them?
Undoubtedly, dealing with adverse impact of the global financial and economic crisis on national economies is on the top of economic priorities of the countries of the region. Due to prudent financial policy Azerbaijan’s economy proved to be robust and resilient to drastically changed global economic environment. National economy continues to grow rapidly. Growth rates for 2009 registered at the level of 7–8%, forecasts for 2010 at 9–10%.
Through some economy policy adjustments to changing international environment, we continue to pursue our development strategy objectives among which are diversification of economy and sustainable development of the regions through non-oil and SME sectors development. Emphasis is put on modern industrial and social infrastructure and branches like ICT that will define competitiveness of Azerbaijan’s economy in the future.
Speaking of the region, in the medium- to long-term perspective, among most serious challenges is to further develop the East-West energy corridor through implementation of new infrastructure projects to ensure diversification of routes and sources of energy supplies.
What, in terms of business opportunities, does attract foreign companies most – in Azerbaijan and also in other states in the region?
First and foremost, Azerbaijan is most stable and most vibrant economy in the whole region and one of the most dynamic in the world. Average growth rates during last few years were at the level of 15–20%. Though energy sector is driving engine behind, and will be so for years to come, wealth is spreading across other branches of economy and society generating growing demand for all kinds of goods and services. Construction, industrial and social infrastructure development, transport and services, lifestyle and leisure are among most dynamic sectors of the economy.
How high are current levels of foreign investments, and what do you expect in this respect in the future?
With well over 60 billion USD already invested and expected inflow of revenues from export of hydrocarbon resources in coming years at the level of 150–200 billion USD, Azerbaijan is for sure among the most attractive business destinations in the world.
Government is undertaking reforms to improve business environment in order to attract foreign investments and technology in other sectors of the economy and regions of the country. In 2008, Azerbaijan was voted by the World Bank as top reformer among emerging economies. Among priority sectors are ICT, agriculture and food processing, services. Objective of the economic strategy is to utilize strong comparative advantages and develop new competitive advantages.
As a regional hub, Azerbaijan provides convenient access to other countries of the vast Central Asian region.
Do you see, on the contrary, any pitfalls in fully exploring this potential?
Regretfully, what we are witnessing in dealing with this and other similar situations is substitution of endorsing norms and principles of international law with kind of technocratic approach. If the EU and NATO are to project themselves as a leading moral force in changing the world to better place, there should be strong degree of consistency and coherency between words and deeds.
The leadership of Azerbaijan repeatedly showed its will and commitment to peaceful resolution of the conflict. However if all possible ways for peaceful resolution were exhausted, restoration of its territorial integrity by force would remain as last resort in accordance with international law.
As we come back to the conflicts all the time, do you think that the conflict between Russia and Georgia made it harder for Azerbaijan to fulfill its goals in terms of strengthening its ties with the European Union and NATO?
I will not speculate about what were true intentions of Russia. Though Russia might have legitimate concerns about development in the region, they should have been addressed through a dialogue, not military actions. And I doubt that such actions will prevent countries and peoples of the region from becoming less pro-western.
As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, I do not think that it became harder to develop ties with the EU and NATO. Quite opposite, the conflict triggered the development of more close and engaged relationship. For example, the EU responded through European Partnership. I believe that NATO will also become more engaged eventually.
What role therefore do NATO and the EU play in Azerbaijani foreign policy?
It is important to understand that Azerbaijan develops its ties with the EU and NATO irrespectively of other countries’ goals and objectives but is driven only by its national interests. Relationship and cooperation of Azerbaijan with the EU and NATO is evolving towards more close and strengthened cooperation because it serves our national interests. Our objective is not to be more pro-western, but to pursue policies that would enhance our sovereignty and independence, ensure sustainable democratic development of the country and ensure prospects for development in wider regional context.
But we are a small country, living in a very complex, sometimes unpredictable environment; therefore for us foreign policy is a fine balancing act. In this context, the development of close relations and cooperation with the EU and NATO is a reciprocal process and depends on commitments and engagement of all parties.
Foreign policies are sometimes seen as related to natural resource capacities. Is this the case of Azerbaijan?
Natural resources of Azerbaijan are one of the most important national assets and have been used for consolidating the nation, ensure rehabilitation and development of the country and its integration into international community. Since independence, in particular in 90s, natural resources have played a vital role in the revival of the country and transforming it into leading and most dynamic economy in the region. Naturally, foreign policy played decisive role in this process.
In what respect has this role been decisive in the past and recently?
Azerbaijan has over 150 years of experience of oil exploration and development and throughout history natural resources have never caused significant political disputes and splits. Indeed development and export of natural resources is open and transparent process with wide and active participation of the international community. Oil companies representing more than 10 countries are participating in exploration and development of natural resources of Azerbaijan. International financial institutions are involved in financing numerous projects. There are open discussions about prospects of the development in public. Azerbaijan was among the first countries which positively responded to the extractive industries transparency initiative (EITI) of Tony Blair, British Prime Minister at the time, and keeps records of revenues and spending transparent and open.
The government established the State Oil Fund to free economy from excess funds and to accumulate extra revenues for future generations.
So, in the case of Azerbaijan natural resources are certainly not a curse. Model developed in Azerbaijan now attracts attention of many existing and emerging oil and natural gas exporters among developing countries indeed. And we are keen and willing to share our experience.
To sum up, you have mentioned a few trends, among which international cooperation has been one of the most important. So what development do you see in Azerbaijani foreign policy in the context of deepening this cooperation?
I do not think that it will bring significant changes in foreign policy of Azerbaijan but it will definitely speed up the process of overall development. By providing stable, secure and conducive environment, such cooperation will free so much needed resources currently spent to maintain security and enhanced military capabilities and reallocate them for achieving important commitments in economic and social development.
Of course, given the potential and role of Azerbaijan in regional developments in the Caspian region, we could see more active involvement in and contribution of Azerbaijan to the regional and international developments.
So you think about the future of the socio-economic and political trends in the Caspian in rather optimistic terms.
Yes. Deeper EU and NATO involvement in the region, will, I believe, bring more security, stability and development overall. And this will multiply efforts and contribution of Azerbaijan to play the role of the champion for positive change in the region. This is definitely a win-win scenario for promoting peace, democracy and prosperity in this vast region.
Given its enormous economic and development potential, Caspian region should be the zone of peace and prosperity radiating security and stability beyond its frontiers thus contributing to the global security and stability. This is in the interest of all progressive forces.
As mentioned before, better prospects of cooperation with Euro-Atlantic structures and shared responsibility of the EU and NATO in shaping and developing of the Caspian region as safe and secure region will also unleash enormously the potential of cooperation among countries of the region as well.
Thank you.
Autorka studuje mezinárodní vztahy na Masarykově univerzitě. Absolvovala také studijní pobyt na Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris – Sciences Po, a letní školy London School of Economics and Political Science a Evropského konsorcia pro politologický výzkum zaměřené na analýzu zahraniční politiky a na metodologii sociálně-vědního výzkumu. Je výzkumnou pracovnicí Mezinárodního politologického ústavu Masarykovy univerzity. Věnuje se problematice energetické bezpečnosti a zahraniční politice s regionálním důrazem na střední a východní Evropu a post-sovětský prostor.
Časopis pro politiku a mezinárodní vztahy
S podporou International Institute of Political Science v Brně