Following the tradition of past successful Symposiums, editors of
Global Politics decided to focus this time on recent popular uprisings in the
Arab World. There are not many issues in contemporary international politics
that are so dynamically developing and vigorously debated as this one. Thanks to
the global media we were able to watch the overthrow of (so far) two
authoritarian regimes, but the impact of these events on regional and global
politics is yet to be seen. By addressing various Middle East specialists with
diverse backgrounds and institutional affiliations such as London School of
Economics and Political Science, John Hopkins University or American University
of Beirut, we would like to contribute a little to the debate and hopefully
bring attention of our readers to less known aspects of these dramatic events.
What are the most important overlooked factors that were crucial for the
development of the Arab Spring? What are the prospects of transition in Egypt
and Tunisia?
It is our great pleasure to publish the answers of Sheila Carapico, Marek
Čejka, Katarina Dalacoura, Jack A.Goldstone, Hilal Khashan, Fred H. Lawson,
Karim Mezran and Yezid Sayigh.
GP questions:
- In your opinion, what is the most overlooked event or factor in the
revolutionary Arab world that deserves to be mentioned and is of the utmost
importance for the future development?
- Do you think that democracy will be a viable option in Egypt and Tunisia
after the revolutionary spring in the Arab world settles down?
Authors provided the answers during May 2011.
Jack A. Goldstone
George Mason University; Virginia E. and John T. Hazel Jr. Professor of
Public Policy, Center for Global Policy; Director
- The most overlooked factor is the global context – the number of
democracies in the world has been growing steadily every decade since the 1960s,
and democracy has spread to every continent. Democratic regimes were
‚overdue‘ in the Middle East, given the levels of income, education, and
communication in these societies, and the global trend bodes well for what we
can expect in the Middle East. By this trend, at least some countries should
emerge as democracies.
- Yes, especially in Tunisia which has the advantages of being more
homogenous, smaller, and more educated. The road to democracy will probably be
bumpy – we can expect swings back toward authoritarianism, struggles with
corruption, and some social conflicts, much like in eastern Europe or Ukraine.
But ten years from now, Tunisia and Egypt should be democracies. In both
countries the biggest challenge will be addressing persistent poverty.
Sheila Carapico
University of Richmond, American University in Cairo; Professor of
Political Science and International Studies
- It is hardly surprising that the most overlooked dimension of the Arab
spring has been action at the neighborhood level. That it has been
overlooked is unsurprising because international reporters and even national
personalities are least likely to see what is going on in small neighborhoods
and even on streetcorners: neighborhood watch committees, community
street-cleaning brigades, and small-scale demonstrations or localized strikes in
districts at workplaces. Now that the large-scale protests in Egypt are „on
hold,“ the real action is on this micro-level. Therefore, the prospect for
civic activism to carry forth the democratization process also rest with the
grassroots.
- The answer to the second question is interwoven with the first. Democracy
will be possible if and to the extent that it engages the grassroots in the
project. It will not be possible for military officers, the business class,
and middle aged political actors to forge democracy without engagement of the
sha'ab and the shebab.
Katerina Dalacoura
London School of Economics; Lecturer in International Relations
- Between the hype on the role of social media and the scaremongering on
political Islam, an important aspect of the revolts has been overlooked: the
ardent nationalist feelings which inspired, at the very least, the demonstrators
in Tunisia and Egypt. The sea of Egyptian flags in Tahrir Square was remarkable.
Although it is unfashionable to think about it, the revolts demonstrate the
power of nationalism in the region. Pointing this out is important in itself but
it also has implications about political analysis and, ultimately, policy
making. In the case of Bahrain, for example, if the nationalist loyalty of the
Shia is questioned, the ability of Iran to interfere internally and skew events
can be exaggerated.
- Democracy is not something that is there, or not. We are always talking
about matters of degree. Yes, democratic change in Egypt and Tunisia will occur
and their political systems will improve, in the sense of being more open and
accountable and less arbitrary. Egypt and Tunisia have sufficiently strong
institutions to hold their societies together and uphold the rule of law.
However, existing elites will be difficult to dislodge and, more importantly,
their habits hard to change. A lot will depend on economic reform and social
change. The overthrow of the Ben Ali and Mubarak regimes was a momentous event
so what follows will be, inevitably, an anti-climax.
Karim Mezran
Johns Hopkins University; Adjunct professor of Middle East Studies,
Center for American Studies, Rome; Director
- I think that we cannot talk about revolutions, at least not yet. We can
only talk about revolts because of the lack of revolutionary outcomes so far.
Nevertheless, what has happened carries two revolutionary consequences. After
long time, the Arab street has reappeared and the Arab population has proved
that they can risk their life for values such as freedom, respect and dignity.
Secondly, after many years of standing by dictators, no matter how bad they
were, the United States has shown a change of heart in so far as they will not
stand by the regimes who oppress their people with violence and blood.
- Of course, although I think that more than the realizations of democracy
per se, what we are going to witness is a long and difficult process of
liberalization, that is the progressive acquisition of rights by the masses from
the state. How long this process will be and how difficult it is easy to
imagine. Nevertheless, I deeply believe that this is exactly what has begun in
this past winter. Especially in Egypt, we are going to see finally the entrance
into the political arena of a party formed by the Muslim Brotherhood. This will
break the deadlock started in the ‘50s between the secular authoritarian state
and the popular Islamist movements.
Fred H. Lawson
Mills College; Professor of Government
- Crucial to the outbreak and success of revolutionary uprisings across the
Arab world is the relationship between the organized labor movement and the
regime. There can be little question that the activities of industrial workers
in Egypt over the last few years laid the foundation for the events of
January-February 2011. At a minimum, steps taken by workers to defy the
authorities and set up unofficial trade unions provided a model and an
inspiration for the students who organized the demonstrations in Tahrir
Square—this is obvious from the name that was adopted by the primary student
group. It is even more likely that connections between the strikes and
protests carried out by workers all across the country merged with the marches
in Cairo and Alexandria to generate a challenge that looked threatening enough
to persuade the military high command to abandon the president and his inner
circle in the National Democratic Party. How exactly these dynamics occurred
remains to be explored.
- Why liberal democracies sometimes succeed in supplanting autocratic regimes
in poorer countries remains largely unknown. One major factor seems to be a
moderate level of economic development, which Tunisia is approaching but Egypt
has not yet reached. Another is a country's prior experience with party
politics and popular elections, which is much greater in Egypt than in
Tunisia. In both countries, the major Islamist organizations have pledged to
play by the rules of the electoral game, while radical groups that reject
liberal institutions have been crushed. If the Muslim Brothers of Egypt and
the Awakening party in Tunisia follow through on their promises, politics based
on routine popular voting may indeed take root. Such elections are likely to
produce outsomes that displease the governments of Europe and America, not to
mention Israel, but we will have to hope that the days when London and
Washington actively undercut such nationalist leaderships as Iran's Muhammad
Musaddiq have at last ended.
Hilal Khashan
American University of Beirut; Professor of Political Studies
- There is no question that Arab publics are angry at their ruling elites and
want to see them go. Decades of ill-governance seem to have finally had their
toll on the people. Arab uprisings are occurring as natural phenomena after
decades of despotic rule, economic stagnation, loss of direction and lack of
horizon. One of the main problems of Arab uprisings is the absence of specific
demands, not to mention an agenda for change. The protesters have no leaders to
follow and no program of action to pursue. Arabs are seething with frustration
and anger; they want change, but it seems they have no vision beyond ousting
their tyrannical rulers. Arab societies are segmented; the social forces that
seek change are not of one persuasion. The greatest fear is that they will turn
against each other once they embark upon the daunting task of building a new
political system.
- Democracy is the ultimate goal of Arab protesters. There is a big difference
between aspiring democracy and installing it. There is absolutely no question
that Egyptians and Tunisians want their countries to have workable democratic
systems. The institution of democracy is a long term process that requires,
among other things, instilling in the minds of people democratic values and
behaviors. What we are currently observing in Egypt and Tunisia is the laying
out of the first building block in the very tall edifice of democracy. There are
many challenges lying ahead and the road to democracy is bumpy and can be quite
unpredictable. The transition to democracy takes generations to institute and
one should not expect it to take root overnight.
Yezid Sayigh
King's College London; Professor of Middle East Studies
- A very large part of media attention and academic analysis of the “Arab
Spring” has focused on youth, and on the information and communications
technologies they use to mobilize and organize. However, what is overlooked is
the older generation of former activists who acquired critically important
political and organizational skills during previous decades of opposition to
authoritarian governments. Many have shaken off the legacy of brutality and
imprisonment to renew their role, which is likely to become increasingly
important: first, because the old regimes were deeply entrenched and the
democratic transition is far from complete, and second because the revolutionary
surge now faces huge problems of dealing with unemployment, massive poverty, and
other challenges of social and economic development.
- Egypt and Tunisia are the most likely among the Arab states to experience a
deepening democratic transition, because they both have strong state legacies,
relatively homogeneous societies, and sizeable educated middle classes. The old
regimes were deeply entrenched, however, and the former security establishment
(intelligence agencies, interior ministries, police) remain intact, and their
resistance to further democratization will increase every day. This may also be
supported by the senior commands of the national armies, and possibly also the
conservative Islamists. Conversely, the recent revolutions have generated new
political and social forces, including growing labour movements, which will
continue to push for greater reform and genuine democracy. These two
trajectories will come into growing tension, and so the real crisis of these
systems still lies ahead.
Marek Čejka
The Institute of International Relations, Prague; Researcher
- In my opinion, it’s lack of information on the context. Media often
stress the causes such as “economic situation”, “food prices”,
“dissatisfaction with current leaders” etc. This view is very simplifying
and the context of current developments is much more complex. Desire for justice
and freedom isn’t limited to the Western world. In this respect, we don’t
talk about the fact that the desire of Arabs (and Middle Eastern inhabitants in
general) for life in freedom and dignity in the Arab world has started a long
time ago – at the turn of 19th and 20th century, as Arab nationalism
constituted and during the WWI when Arab Revolt emerged (1916). Freedom and
dignity nevertheless remain out of reach until now. Before the WWII, this was
mainly caused by Britain and France who gained control over the Middle East in
order to pursue their own interests and set local ethnic groups and religions
against each other. After the WWII, the Cold War divided the Middle East into
the spheres of influence and the region became a battleground of the Cold War.
At the same time, they also created an environment for the development of
autocracies as well as status quo that persists until nowadays.
It was of course much more complicated, but given such a limited space,
I would sum it up as follows. I certainly don’t want to say that the Arabs
and their political leaders didn’t make many mistakes, but it is important to
bear in mind that in the 20th century, it was practically impossible to stand up
to technological superiority and political methods of Britain and France and
subsequently of the USA and the Soviet Union. These countries were mostly
concerned with their own interests and viewed freedom and dignity of Middle
Eastern inhabitants as a very selective and purposive issue. For them, it was
often more advantageous to support Middle Eastern autocracies than democratic
methods of governance. The issue of today is to overcome this heritage and
long-term status quo.
Last but not least, Western information on current developments also
insufficiently stressed that Arab societies are much more complicated today than
we are aware of due to deep-rooted schemes: Islamists – uneducated
people – corrupt elite. Arab world is much more structured and there is a
very influential group of people (often young and educated) who long for similar
values that we do.
- Yes. Arab democracy is one of the varieties that can prevail in these
countries. I use the term „Arab“ on purpose, because if
it’s established, it will be different from ours in many aspects (even though
most of the essential elements may remain identical with the concept of Western
democracy). It may be nonetheless much closer to the religious, tribal, ethnic
and other traditions of the Arab world. It may also be much more critical
towards the Western world and results of its policies in the Middle East, it may
put more stress on the role of army and security bodies etc. In this respect,
current Turkey is a great inspiration, even though we can question the extent to
which the Turkish model is applicable to the Arab countries that underwent quite
different internal development in the 20th century than Turkey did. The
existence of the Turkish model and its attractiveness for example also to
moderate Islamists is nevertheless a positive thing. I would like to quote
leading Tunisian Islamist Rashid al-Ghannushi: „Turkish experience remains the
closest to the Tunisian tradition, culture and politics. Turkey is the closest
such case for Tunisia. Therefore, (our Islamist party) Nahda cannot be compared
to Taliban or to Iran. The closest comparison is AKP (current Turkish
governmental party).”
Authors of Symposium are students of political science and international
relations at Masaryk University and editors of Global Politics